This weekend my wife Carrie asked if I ever think about the environmental impact of AI, and whether that influences how I feel about the products I am building that wouldn't exist without powerful LLMs. The implicit subtext is that AI consumes massive amounts of energy, and the production of that energy is bad for the environment because much of it comes from fossil fuels. And that I, in a very small way, am contributing to the climate crisis by building products that increase the demand for AI.

My answer was that I do think about the environmental impact of AI, but that I think about it in a net positive way.

It is an objective truth that there must be an energy transition from fossil fuels to cleaner forms of renewable energy production like nuclear, solar, and wind because 1) if this does not happen the climate crisis will accelerate and that will be catastrophic for humanity, 2) we need more and more energy to progress technological innovation and improve the quality of life for humanity, and 3) coal and fossil fuels are a finite resource - we will eventually run out of them.

Unfortunately, as a group, humans don't respond well to taking preventative measures to act in the best interest of our collective future. We collectively respond when staring catastrophic threats directly in the face (e.g. war, natural disasters). And while it's true that the climate crisis has accelerated the frequency and severity of natural disasters, it still hasn't produced the "Drop everything and fix it" mentality needed to drive the energy transition.

It is both a fortunate and unfortunate truth that capitalism is a great motivator, and so is geopolitical competition. And right now AI is the bright star of GDP growth, and there is a geopolitical battle between the West and East to become the global leader in AI. Progressing AI requires an insatiable demand for energy, and these two forces, capitalism and geopolitical competition, will force our hand to accelerate the energy transition. Ironically, not because it is what will mitigate the climate crisis, but because it will drive GDP and AI leadership.

So I don't feel bad about AI's impact on energy consumption. I think there is short term pain, but long term gain. I am optimistic about its net effect. And I really hope I am right on this one.